Review: Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: A population-based cohort study

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Review: Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: A population-based cohort study

Review: Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: A population-based cohort study

This study estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios.

The authors analyzed 3.8 million health records from the UK and classified more than 20% of the study population as ‘high-risk’, either because they were older than 70 (13.7%) or younger 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition (6.3%). They modeled several different infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%).

They found that between 37,000 and 73,000 excess deaths could occur over the next year from direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, depending on how the lockdown is eased.

They also developed an online, public, prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation, which can be found here.

|2020-05-16T12:17:12-04:00May 15th, 2020|COVID-19 Literature|0 Comments

About the Author: Erika Cheng

Erika Cheng

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