This study estimated the potential total numbers of COVID-19 deaths in China, outside Hubei (in China), Hubei Province, Wuhan City and outside Wuhan (in Hubei) by Boltzmann function-based analyses.
As of Feb 13, 2020, there have been over 80,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients and over 3,000 deaths in China, most of which are in the epicenter of the outbreak, Wuhan city and related regions in Hubei province.
This study estimated the potential total number of COVID-19 deaths by applying Boltzmann function-based regression analysis, an approach developed for estimating the potential total numbers of confirmed cases for both the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and the gone SARS epidemic.
Results estimate the following number of deaths: 3,342 (95% CI, 3214, 3527) in China, 111 (109, 114) outside Hubei (in China), 3245 (3100, 3423) in Hubei Province, 2613 (2498, 2767) in Wuhan City, and 627 (603, 654) outside Wuhan (in Hubei).
Boltzmann function-based analyses can be used to predict the the severity of COVID-19 outbreaks.