This modeling study describes a publicly available system designed for hospital operations leaders that can inform preparations for capacity strain under the COVID-19 pandemic.
This study used a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the timing of surges for clinical resources, as well as the best- and worst-case scenarios of local COVID-19–induced strain on hospital capacity. It was based on three hospitals in an academic health system in the greater Philadelphia region.
The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model (CHIME) model, using patients with COVID-19 alone, estimated that it would be 31 to 53 days before demand exceeds existing hospital capacity. In best- and worst-case scenarios, the total needed hospital beds would reach 3131 to 12 650 across the 3 hospitals, including 338 to 1608 ICU beds and 118 to 599 ventilators.