This week, two new modeling studies contribute new evidence to the conversation about in-person schooling during the pandemic. Both pre-prints (which means they have not yet been peer-reviewed), the studies consider several dimensions of in-person schooling to simulate COVID-19 spread
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Learning Losses Researchers, policymakers, and school administrators alike are worried about what COVID-19, and its accompanying disruptions to schooling, will mean for children’s learning and development. We know from high-quality studies on hurricane-caused school displacements and even from school closures
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The cohort study modeled data from 50 different cities and found that SARS-CoV-2 appears to behave like a seasonal respiratory virus. 8 cities w/ substantial spread of COVID-19 were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did
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This modeling study explored different interventions (not involving medications/vaccines) influencing new cases and deaths related to COVID-19 and found that intermittent periods of more intensive lockdown-type measures may be necessary to prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. The model explored
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Using an accelerated failure time-based modeling study, estimated median time virus RNA detection ranged from 15.6-24.5 days in mild COVID-19 cases to 30.9-33.9 days in severe cases. This was a prospective analysis of 49 coronavirus disease cases in Guangdong, China
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This study discusses methods by which we can estimate the size of an outbreak from various surveillance measures. Policymakers dealing with COVID-19 will need to decide when to switch from measures that contain and eliminate the outbreak to measures designed
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This study warns that limited testing rates because of limited testing ability can cause models to give incorrect results. We need reliable estimates of the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate to guide the timing and intensity of intervention strategies. A number
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This modeling study of Utah found that handing the pandemic like South Korea versus Italy had a 3-month variation in pandemic length, a 1.5-fold difference in the peak number of daily infections, and a 3-fold difference in the total cumulative
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This study makes the case that a lot of disease transmission occurs before symptoms occur in index cases, and disease control measures need to be adjusted accordingly. Researchers examined viral shedding in 94 patients with COVID-19. They also modeled COVID-19
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This modeling study reinforces the need to plan ahead for future efforts to control COVID-19 long into the future. While our focus right now is on social distancing and flattening the curve, we still need to understand the future of
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