This study estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios.

The authors analyzed 3.8 million health records from the UK and classified more than 20% of the study population as ‘high-risk’, either because they were older than 70 (13.7%) or younger 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition (6.3%). They modeled several different infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%).

They found that between 37,000 and 73,000 excess deaths could occur over the next year from direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, depending on how the lockdown is eased.

They also developed an online, public, prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation, which can be found here.