This document presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US.
- Data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day are from WHO websites and local and national government databases.
- The authors used non-linear fixed effects modeling based on observed epidemic curves for COVID-19 deaths in Wuhan to predict the likely trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic for individual US states. Models account for state-specific population age distributions.
- Outcomes include mortality, bed and ICU occupancy, and ventilator use.
- The analysis shows large gaps between need for hospital services and available capacity, especially for inpatient and ICU beds.
- The model predicts that demand for health services will rapidly increase in the last week of March and first 2 weeks of April and then slowly decline through the rest of April and May.
- The model also estimates a total of 81,114 (95% CI 38,242 to 162,106) deaths from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US.
- These predictions are largely driven by the timing and intensity of social distancing measures. The predictions do not account for adherence to social distancing measures, social norms, or underlying health characteristics of the population beyond age.
Results for each state are accessible through a visualization tool at http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections. The estimates presented in this tool are continually updated as new data are incorporated.