A discrete-time deterministic epidemic model is used to make predictions about the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy.
Generally, transmission dynamics of infectious disease are described by modelling population movements which assume that the population mixes at random, or that each individual has a small and equal chance of coming into contact with any other individual. This paper uses a model that conceptualizes the population as elements in a network to describe the pattern of COVID-19 infections in Italy starting from January 31, 2020 and to predict when the epidemic peak will occur.
Using this model, the authors estimate that the peak in the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic will occur in Italy between April 2 and April 13, 2020. The overall duration of the COVID-19 disease is predicted to be approximately 5 months.