This article discusses the President’s Coronavirus Task Force estimate that by strictly following extended social distancing and hygiene-related recommendations nationwide, the number of U.S. Coronavirus outbreak deaths can be held to 100,000, but that number could go much higher with poor adherence to or early abandonment of stay-at-home policies.

“I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead….[W]e’re going to go through a very tough two weeks,” stated President Trump at the March 31, 2020 White House briefing on the pandemic. The administration, on March 29, had extended the government’s recommendations concerning social distancing through April 30, 2020.

In the last 24 hours, the governors of Florida and Texas, the two largest states that previously did not have statewide so-called “stay-at-home” orders in place, have signed orders that will stay in effect for at least the next 30 days. The Texas governor has called the state’s executive order an order “relating to statewide continuity of essential services and activities during the COVID-19 disaster.” He declined to call the order a “stay-at-home” or “shelter-in-place” order, arguing that such orders may cause confusion because (a) essential services would remain open, and (b) people could continue to leave their homes for a limited range of activities like grocery shopping and exercise.