This study predicted trajectories of COVID-19 in the coming days (until April 30, 2020) around the world using an advanced Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). The model’s predictions suggest that rapid infection control measures are urgently needed to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic.
The authors used data from the John Hopkins Coronavirus resource center and dynamic modeling to generate 30 day forecasts for 20 countries.
Findings revealed linearity in the current cumulative cases and showed a rapid exponential growth phase in the world span that may occur roughly during April 8 to April 30, 2020, when they predict that the number of COVID-19 cases will skyrocket to one million in the USA, 300,000 in Italy, and 250,000 in Germany, 150,000 in the United Kingdom and 120,000 in Iran.
Other countries with a smaller number of cases but showing a sharp upward trend include Switzerland, Austria, and Canada. Cases of COVID-19 in China and South Korea remain stable.
Public health officials in these countries need to grasp the powerful wave of exponential growth before COVID-19 collapses the entire health system.