Review: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease

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Review: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease

Review: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease

This study estimates the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital) for individuals with COVID-19 infections. Findings provide fatality ratios across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and demonstrate a strong age-gradient in risk.

A range of case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for COVID 19 have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude.

Used individual-case data from 44,672 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases from mainland China, this study estimates the time between onset of symptoms and death or discharge from hospital by age. Using data on age stratified severity in a subset of 3,665 cases from China, they also estimated the proportion of infections that will likely require hospitalization.

The mean duration from onset-of-symptoms to death was 17.8 days (95% CI 16.9 to 19.2 days) and from onset-of-symptoms to hospital discharge was 22.6 days (95% CI 21.1 to 24.4 days).

The crude CFR was 3.67% (95% CI 3.56% to 3.80%) in cases from mainland China. The CFR adjusted for demography and under-ascertainment of milder cases in Wuhan relative to the rest of China was 1.38% (95% CI 1.23% to 1.53%) with substantially higher values in older ages.

The CFR from international cases stratified by age (under 60 or 60 and above) were consistent with these estimates from China.

|2020-04-01T15:58:35-04:00April 1st, 2020|COVID-19 Literature|Comments Off on Review: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease

About the Author: Erika Cheng

Erika Cheng

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