This modeling study explored different interventions (not involving medications/vaccines) influencing new cases and deaths related to COVID-19 and found that intermittent periods of more intensive lockdown-type measures may be necessary to prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed.
- The model explored a range of intervention scenarios, tracking approximately 65 million people in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland
- The four base interventions modeled included: school closures, physical distancing, shielding of people aged 70 years+, and self-isolation of symptomatic cases
- A combination of these interventions was also modeled
- These interventions were also modeled with more intensive interventions, such as phased lockdown-type restrictions for multiple periods
- Each of the 4 base interventions were likely to decrease R0, but not enough to prevent ICU demand from exceeding health service capacity
- Only lock-down periods were sufficient to bring R0 near or below 1, with the most stringent lockdown scenario projected to result in an estimated 120,000 cases (46,000–700,000) and 50,000 deaths (9,300–160,000)