Review: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Home/Review: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Review: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Review: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

This modeling study explored different interventions (not involving medications/vaccines) influencing new cases and deaths related to COVID-19 and found that intermittent periods of more intensive lockdown-type measures may be necessary to prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. 

  • The model explored a range of intervention scenarios, tracking approximately 65 million people in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland
  • The four base interventions modeled included: school closures, physical distancing, shielding of people aged 70 years+, and self-isolation of symptomatic cases
    • A combination of these interventions was also modeled
    • These interventions were also modeled with more intensive interventions, such as phased lockdown-type restrictions for multiple periods
  • Each of the 4 base interventions were likely to decrease R0, but not enough to prevent ICU demand from exceeding health service capacity
  • Only lock-down periods were sufficient to bring R0 near or below 1, with the most stringent lockdown scenario projected to result in an estimated 120,000 cases (46,000–700,000) and 50,000 deaths (9,300–160,000)
|2020-06-03T11:07:54-04:00June 3rd, 2020|COVID-19 Literature|0 Comments

About the Author: Megan McHenry

Megan McHenry
Megan S. McHenry, MD, MS, FAAP is a pediatrician and an Assistant Professor of Pediatrics in the Ryan White Center for Pediatric Infectious Disease and Global Health at Indiana University School of Medicine. Dr. McHenry's research focuses on early childhood development in children living in resource-limited settings. This work is frequently aligned with community-engaged research and dissemination and implementation science frameworks. She primarily conducts research in collaboration with the Academic Model for Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) Research Network in Kenya. Dr. McHenry currently has a career development award through the National Institutes of Health to develop a neurodevelopmental screening program for children born to HIV-infected mothers in Kenya. Dr. McHenry is also the Director of Pediatric Global Health Education and a co-Director of the Morris Green Physician-Scientist Development Program at Indiana University School of Medicine. In additional to global health lectures, she also educates residents and students on early childhood development, basic biostatistical techniques, research methodologies, and research ethics. She mentors multiple pediatric fellows, residents, and medical students interested in early childhood development within global contexts.

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