Modeling Study

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Learning Losses Researchers, policymakers, and school administrators alike are worried about what COVID-19, and its accompanying disruptions to schooling, will mean for children’s learning and development. We know from high-quality studies on hurricane-caused school displacements and even from school closures Read More
The cohort study modeled data from 50 different cities and found that SARS-CoV-2 appears to behave like a seasonal respiratory virus.  8 cities w/ substantial spread of COVID-19 were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did Read More
This modeling study explored different interventions (not involving medications/vaccines) influencing new cases and deaths related to COVID-19 and found that intermittent periods of more intensive lockdown-type measures may be necessary to prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed.  The model explored Read More
Using an accelerated failure time-based modeling study, estimated median time virus RNA detection ranged from 15.6-24.5 days in mild COVID-19 cases to 30.9-33.9 days in severe cases.  This was a prospective analysis of 49 coronavirus disease cases in Guangdong, China Read More
This study discusses methods by which we can estimate the size of an outbreak from various surveillance measures. Policymakers dealing with COVID-19 will need to decide when to switch from measures that contain and eliminate the outbreak to measures designed Read More
This study warns that limited testing rates because of limited testing ability can cause models to give incorrect results. We need reliable estimates of the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate to guide the timing and intensity of intervention strategies. A number Read More
This modeling study of Utah found that handing the pandemic like South Korea versus Italy had a 3-month variation in pandemic length, a 1.5-fold difference in the peak number of daily infections, and a 3-fold difference in the total cumulative Read More
This study makes the case that a lot of disease transmission occurs before symptoms occur in index cases, and disease control measures need to be adjusted accordingly. Researchers examined viral shedding in 94 patients with COVID-19. They also modeled COVID-19 Read More
This modeling study reinforces the need to plan ahead for future efforts to control COVID-19 long into the future. While our focus right now is on social distancing and flattening the curve, we still need to understand the future of Read More
This modeling study describes a publicly available system designed for hospital operations leaders that can inform preparations for capacity strain under the COVID-19 pandemic. This study used a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the timing of surges for clinical resources, Read More

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